Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
