Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

A mere eight weeks prior when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Triumph

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

Per Opta, in only two games has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

An Unstoppable Force

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still find their top level.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Dalton Davis
Dalton Davis

A tech strategist with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and AI-driven solutions, passionate about bridging technology and business needs.