A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
